TG/Date Published 18 August 2026
Togo hardly charges more for an outsider than for a favourite
The oldest rule in bookmaking is that long prices are worse value than short ones. On Togo's opening-weekend board that rule barely applies.
Grade every match-result price by how far it sits below the best available and the difference between a favourite and a long shot is under a point. On most boards it is several times that.
For a bettor who likes outsiders, that is the most useful fact available about this market, and it is not one that shows up in any headline number.
The bet the market usually punishes you for making is barely punished here.
The weekend at Togo's best prices
The keenest number on each result, the house holding it, and the market's own read on the match once margin is taken out.
- Hull City v Manchester United, Sat 22 Aug8.80 1xBet / 5.02 1xBet / 1.42 1xBet · 11 / 20 / 69%
- Ipswich v Sunderland, Sat 22 Aug2.82 1xBet / 3.43 1xBet / 2.70 1xBet · 35 / 29 / 36%
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds, Sat 22 Aug2.39 1xBet / 3.48 1xBet / 3.23 1xBet · 41 / 28 / 30%
- Everton v Crystal Palace, Sat 22 Aug2.25 1xBet / 3.52 1xBet / 3.50 1xBet · 44 / 28 / 28%
- Brentford v Tottenham, Sat 22 Aug2.52 1xBet / 3.71 1xBet / 2.87 1xBet · 39 / 27 / 34%
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, Sun 23 Aug1.51 1xBet / 5.08 1xBet / 6.30 1xBet · 65 / 19 / 16%
- Brighton v Aston Villa, Sun 23 Aug2.32 1xBet / 3.75 1xBet / 3.15 1xBet · 42 / 26 / 31%
- Newcastle v Liverpool, Sun 23 Aug3.73 1xBet / 4.16 1xBet / 1.97 1xBet · 26 / 24 / 50%
- Fulham v Chelsea, Mon 24 Aug3.72 1xBet / 3.96 1xBet / 2.02 1xBet · 26 / 25 / 49%
The card is priced evenly, from 1.42% on Everton against Crystal Palace to 1.78% on Manchester City against Bournemouth. Nothing is singled out and nothing is subsidised.
Two visitors are favoured this weekend, at Newcastle and at Fulham, and both are priced closely enough that the draw is a live consideration rather than an afterthought.
What the markets cost
Margin is what the odds carry above a fair book. The flatness of the ladder does not extend to the markets themselves.
- Match result3.14% at a typical book, 1.59% at the best available price
- Over and under 2.5 goals4.32% at a typical book, 2.46% at the best available price
- Both teams to score7.55% at a typical book, 6.65% at the best available price
The result is priced close to fair at the best available number and the goals line is not far behind. Both teams to score is several times either of them and moves very little under comparison.
That is the trade this board offers. Outsiders are treated well; the goals market is not.
How the market splits
Averaged across the same matches: overall, match result, over and under 2.5 goals, both teams to score.
One house is considerably keener on the match result. On both teams to score they are effectively level, and both are expensive.
So the choice is straightforward for a result bettor and close to irrelevant for anyone betting goals, which is an unusual and rather clarifying position for a market to be in.
How flat the ladder is
The widest gaps of the weekend first, and then the bands that carry the argument of this piece.
- Hull City v Manchester United, home win8.30 at one book against 8.80 at another, 6% better
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, away win6.00 at one book against 6.30 at another, 5% better
- Everton v Crystal Palace, away win3.36 at one book against 3.50 at another, 4% better
- Brentford v Tottenham, home win2.42 at one book against 2.52 at another, 4% better
- Brighton v Aston Villa, away win3.03 at one book against 3.15 at another, 4% better
- Favourites, under 2.001.10% below the best price on average
- Middling prices, 2.00 to 4.001.52% below
- Long shots, over 4.001.86% below
The largest disagreement on the card is Hull City at home, quoted at 8.30 against 8.80. On XOF 5,000 that is XOF 2,500 of difference, and it is the biggest gap available all weekend.
Now read the bands. A favourite is shaded by barely a point, a long shot by under two. That near-flat ladder is what makes this board distinctive, and it is worth more to an outsider-backer than any amount of price hunting.
What comparison is worth
With the prices this close, the useful question is how much a second look adds.
- 1xBet81% of the best prices, 99.8% of the value
- Adding 1win100% of the best prices, 100.0% of the value
The leading name captures nearly all of the value alone, and a second completes it. The gap between them in money terms is small, which is consistent with everything else on this board.
What the opening round tells a Togolese bettor
Back outsiders here with less hesitation than usual. The penalty on long prices, which is the reason most bettors are warned off them, is unusually small in this market. That is a real structural advantage while it lasts.
Both teams to score is the market to be careful with. It is several times the cost of the result and comparison barely moves it. Every leg added there is paying full price.
Watch whether the ladder steepens. A flat ladder is unusual enough that one weekend cannot confirm it. If it holds through September it is the defining feature of betting in this market.
This is the first instalment. Each round gets the same treatment.
Every bookmaker in this analysis
The fixtures, priced live
- Hull City v Manchester United22 August
- Ipswich v Sunderland22 August
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds22 August
- Everton v Crystal Palace22 August
- Brentford v Tottenham22 August
- Manchester City v Bournemouth23 August
- Brighton v Aston Villa23 August
- Newcastle v Liverpool23 August
- Fulham v Chelsea24 August
Elsewhere on BetCheck
- Every Togolese bookmaker, compared
- Match previews, published daily
- Accas of the day
- More smart betting guides
Method
Odds from the Togolese bookmakers listed above on the Premier League fixtures of 21 to 24 August 2026, as at 18 August. Margin is the sum of the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market, less 100%. The best available price takes the highest number quoted on each outcome anywhere in the Togolese market. Percentages beside a fixture are the market's own view of it once margin is stripped out. Odds move; the numbers here describe a snapshot, not a guarantee. 18+. Bet responsibly.
