SN/Date Published 18 August 2026
Senegal's Friday night is the most expensive bet of the weekend
Nine matches on Senegal's opening-weekend board are priced within a point or two of a fair book. The tenth, the one that kicks the season off, costs several times as much.
Arsenal against Coventry on the Friday night carries 7.07% at the best available prices. Everton against Crystal Palace the following afternoon carries 1.42%. Same competition, same weekend, same market.
A heavy favourite in an early kick-off is the classic setup for a wide board, and Senegal shows it starkly. Knowing that is worth more than any view on the football.
The first match of the season is the one the Senegalese market charges most to bet on.
The weekend as Senegal has priced it
The best number quoted on each result, who holds it, and the market's own read on the match once margin is removed. The margin figure on each line is what the argument here rests on.
- Arsenal v Coventry, Fri 21 Aug1.16 Mojabet / 7.04 Mojabet / 15.02 Mojabet · 81 / 13 / 6%
- Hull City v Manchester United, Sat 22 Aug8.80 1xBet / 5.02 1xBet / 1.42 1xBet · 11 / 20 / 69%
- Ipswich v Sunderland, Sat 22 Aug2.82 1xBet / 3.43 1xBet / 2.70 1xBet · 35 / 29 / 36%
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds, Sat 22 Aug2.39 1xBet / 3.48 1xBet / 3.23 1xBet · 41 / 28 / 30%
- Everton v Crystal Palace, Sat 22 Aug2.25 1xBet / 3.52 1xBet / 3.50 1xBet · 44 / 28 / 28%
- Brentford v Tottenham, Sat 22 Aug2.52 1xBet / 3.71 1xBet / 2.87 1xBet · 39 / 27 / 34%
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, Sun 23 Aug1.51 1xBet / 5.08 1xBet / 6.30 1xBet · 65 / 19 / 16%
- Brighton v Aston Villa, Sun 23 Aug2.32 1xBet / 3.75 1xBet / 3.15 1xBet · 42 / 26 / 31%
- Newcastle v Liverpool, Sun 23 Aug3.73 1xBet / 4.16 1xBet / 1.97 1xBet · 26 / 24 / 50%
- Fulham v Chelsea, Mon 24 Aug3.72 1xBet / 3.96 1xBet / 2.02 1xBet · 26 / 25 / 49%
Read down the last column and the Friday opener stands alone. Everything from Saturday onward is priced tightly, and several matches are close to fair.
The rest of the round is conventional: two visitors favoured away, one even match in the middle, and heavy home favourites at either end of the price range.
What each market costs
Margin is the share written into the odds above a fair book. In Senegal the three markets are priced very differently.
- Match result5.60% at a typical book, 2.14% at the best available price
- Over and under 2.5 goals6.17% at a typical book, -1.54% at the best available price
- Both teams to score8.61% at a typical book, 5.32% at the best available price
The over and under line is unusual. Taking the keenest number on each side produces a book adding up to less than 100%, which means the two halves of that market are being priced by houses with genuinely opposing views. Prices move, so this is a measure of disagreement rather than a strategy.
Both teams to score is the dearest market on the board by some way, before and after comparison.
How the houses line up
Averaged across the same matches: overall, match result, over and under 2.5 goals, both teams to score.
- Linebet3.56% overall · 1.59% · 1.52% · 7.56%
- Melbet3.56% overall · 1.59% · 1.52% · 7.56%
- 1xBet4.25% overall · 1.59% · 3.61% · 7.56%
- 22Bet6.02% overall · 7.10% · 6.00% · 4.96%
- Premier Bet7.08% overall · 6.08% · 8.07%
- Mojabet7.70% overall · 6.56% · 8.05% · 8.49%
- Sunubet8.72% overall · 8.29% · 9.13% · 8.73%
- Betclic13.54% overall · 11.80% · 13.36% · 15.46%
Two names at the top post an identical price list on every outcome they share, to the second decimal. They are one set of numbers under two brands, and holding both adds nothing.
The bottom of this table is a long way from the top, further than in the top of most tables. A bettor who lands in the wrong place is paying several times over for the same bet.
Where the prices pull apart
The widest gaps of the weekend, followed by the bands they fall into.
- Hull City v Manchester United, home win7.40 at one book against 8.80 at another, 19% better
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, away win5.40 at one book against 6.30 at another, 17% better
- Newcastle v Liverpool, away win1.70 at one book against 1.97 at another, 16% better
- Fulham v Chelsea, home win3.33 at one book against 3.72 at another, 12% better
- Everton v Crystal Palace, home win2.02 at one book against 2.25 at another, 11% better
- Favourites, under 2.002.87% below the best price on average
- Middling prices, 2.00 to 4.003.67% below
- Long shots, over 4.004.83% below
Hull City to beat Manchester United is quoted at 7.40 in one place and 8.80 in another. On XOF 5,000 that is XOF 7,000 of difference on an identical bet.
The bands below show a shallow ladder. Senegal shades its favourites relatively hard, which narrows the gap between the two ends.
How much of the board is within reach
The useful question is how few places a bettor needs to look before comparison stops paying.
- Linebet63% of the best prices, 98.5% of the value
- Adding 22Bet90% of the best prices, 100.0% of the value
- Adding Mojabet100% of the best prices, 100.0% of the value
- Adding Betclic100% of the best prices, 100.0% of the value
The first choice captures almost all of the value on its own, and the second closes the rest. Beyond that there is nothing left to collect.
What to take into the next round
Leave the opener alone, or shop it hard. The Friday night match was several times more expensive to bet than anything else on the board. If that repeats it is the most actionable pattern this market has shown.
Both teams to score is the market to avoid on impulse. It is the dearest thing here by a distance, and it is the leg most often added to an accumulator without a second look.
Watch whether the goals disagreement settles. A market whose best over and under prices do not add up to a whole book has not finished forming a view. Where it lands over the coming rounds is worth following.
This is the first instalment. Each round gets the same numbers.
Every bookmaker in this analysis
The fixtures, priced live
- Arsenal v Coventry21 August
- Hull City v Manchester United22 August
- Ipswich v Sunderland22 August
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds22 August
- Everton v Crystal Palace22 August
- Brentford v Tottenham22 August
- Manchester City v Bournemouth23 August
- Brighton v Aston Villa23 August
- Newcastle v Liverpool23 August
- Fulham v Chelsea24 August
Elsewhere on BetCheck
- Every Senegalese bookmaker, compared
- Match previews, published daily
- Accas of the day
- More smart betting guides
Method
Odds from the Senegalese bookmakers listed above on the Premier League fixtures of 21 to 24 August 2026, as at 18 August. Margin is the sum of the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market, less 100%. The best available price takes the highest number quoted on each outcome anywhere in the Senegalese market. Percentages beside a fixture are the market's own view of it once margin is stripped out. Odds move; the numbers here describe a snapshot, not a guarantee. 18+. Bet responsibly.
