CI/Date Published 18 August 2026
Côte d'Ivoire prices the underdog almost as honestly as the favourite
Almost every betting market in the world charges more for a long shot than for a favourite. On the Premier League's opening weekend, Côte d'Ivoire barely does.
The standard pattern is steep. A short price sits close to the best number available anywhere, and a long one sits well below it, because outsiders are what a book most wants to lay. Here the distance between those two treatments is under a point.
For a bettor that is unusual and worth knowing. It means the price you see on an outsider in this market is closer to a genuine reflection of the chance than the usual shape of a price ladder would suggest.
An outsider costs barely more to back here than a favourite, which is not how betting markets usually work.
The opening weekend at its best prices
The keenest number quoted on each result, the book holding it, and what the market makes of the match once margin is stripped out.
- Arsenal v Coventry, Fri 21 Aug1.17 Betclic / 7.25 Betclic / 15.00 Betclic · 81 / 13 / 6%
- Hull City v Manchester United, Sat 22 Aug8.80 Linebet / 5.02 Linebet / 1.42 Linebet · 11 / 20 / 69%
- Ipswich v Sunderland, Sat 22 Aug2.82 Linebet / 3.43 Linebet / 2.70 Linebet · 35 / 29 / 36%
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds, Sat 22 Aug2.39 Linebet / 3.48 Linebet / 3.23 Linebet · 41 / 28 / 30%
- Everton v Crystal Palace, Sat 22 Aug2.25 Linebet / 3.52 Linebet / 3.50 Linebet · 44 / 28 / 28%
- Brentford v Tottenham, Sat 22 Aug2.52 Linebet / 3.71 Linebet / 2.87 Linebet · 39 / 27 / 34%
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, Sun 23 Aug1.51 Linebet / 5.10 Betmomo / 6.30 Linebet · 65 / 19 / 16%
- Brighton v Aston Villa, Sun 23 Aug2.32 Linebet / 3.75 Linebet / 3.15 Linebet · 42 / 26 / 31%
- Newcastle v Liverpool, Sun 23 Aug3.73 Linebet / 4.16 Linebet / 1.97 Linebet · 26 / 24 / 50%
- Fulham v Chelsea, Mon 24 Aug3.72 Linebet / 3.98 Betmomo / 2.02 Linebet · 26 / 25 / 49%
Nine of these matches are priced within a whisker of a fair book. The tenth is not, and it is the giveaway: Arsenal at home to Coventry, quoted at more than five percent, on a Friday night when the rest of the market has not yet arrived. A short-priced favourite with little competition around it is the one place this market charges properly.
Everywhere else the visitor gets a fair hearing. Newcastle against Liverpool has the away side at 50%, and Fulham against Chelsea at 49%, both priced tightly enough that the draw is worth a look.
What the three markets cost
Margin is the share written into the odds above a fair book. The three markets here are not priced anywhere near alike.
- Match result3.15% at a typical book, 2.01% at the best available price
- Over and under 2.5 goals4.25% at a typical book, -1.53% at the best available price
- Both teams to score7.89% at a typical book, 6.76% at the best available price
Match result and the goals line are both priced close to fair, and on over and under the best available numbers on the two sides add up to less than a whole book, which is a market openly disagreeing with itself. Both teams to score is the outlier, and by a wide margin: it is the dearest market on the board and the one that most rewards a second look before betting.
If you bet results and goals lines in this market you are already close to the best terms available. If you bet both teams to score, you are paying several times more for the privilege.
The book-by-book picture
Averaged across the same matches, in order: overall, match result, over and under 2.5 goals, both teams to score.
- Linebet3.55% overall · 1.59% · 1.54% · 7.53%
- Megapari3.55% overall · 1.59% · 1.54% · 7.53%
- Melbet3.55% overall · 1.59% · 1.54% · 7.53%
- Paripesa3.55% overall · 1.59% · 1.54% · 7.53%
- 1xBet4.10% overall · 1.59% · 3.16% · 7.53%
- 1win5.91% overall · 4.68% · 5.48% · 7.58%
- Betmomo6.12% overall · 3.95% · 7.00% · 7.40%
- Akwabet7.08% overall · 5.00% · 8.10% · 8.14%
- Betclic8.14% overall · 6.46% · 7.96% · 9.99%
Several names at the top of this table are posting the same price list to the second decimal, on every outcome they share. They are one set of numbers wearing different brands, and holding accounts across them adds nothing that any one of them does not already give you.
Underneath that group the spread is real. Betclic charges roughly twice what the leaders do overall and nearly ten percent on both teams to score, so the choice between the top of this table and the bottom is worth more than the choice within the top.
Where the prices pull apart
The gaps here are narrow, which is itself the story, but the widest of them still repay attention.
- Hull City v Manchester United, home win7.75 at one book against 8.80 at another, 14% better
- Newcastle v Liverpool, away win1.77 at one book against 1.97 at another, 11% better
- Manchester City v Bournemouth, away win5.71 at one book against 6.30 at another, 10% better
- Hull City v Manchester United, the draw4.66 at one book against 5.02 at another, 8% better
- Fulham v Chelsea, home win3.50 at one book against 3.72 at another, 6% better
- Favourites, under 2.001.20% below the best price on average
- Middling prices, 2.00 to 4.001.44% below
- Long shots, over 4.002.10% below
Hull City to beat Manchester United, and Liverpool to win at Newcastle, are the two results the market is least settled on. On a XOF 5,000 stake the first of those is worth XOF 5,250 more at the best price than at the worst.
Then read the ladder below, which is the whole argument of this piece. In most markets the bottom rung is three or four times the top one. Here it is not even double.
How much of the best board is within reach
Given how tightly this market is priced, the question is how little work it takes to capture nearly all of the available value.
- Linebet67% of the best prices, 98.7% of the value
- Adding 1win81% of the best prices, 99.9% of the value
- Adding Betclic91% of the best prices, 99.9% of the value
- Adding Betmomo100% of the best prices, 100.0% of the value
One choice already gets you almost all of it, and the second closes essentially the whole gap. That is what a tight market looks like from the inside: comparison still pays, but it pays quickly and then stops.
What the opening weekend suggests
A flat bias is the finding to test. One weekend is not proof of a pricing philosophy. If long prices keep being treated nearly as well as short ones through September, this is an unusually bettor-friendly structure and worth building a staking plan around.
Both teams to score is the exception to everything above. Every other market here is priced close to fair. That one is not, and it is the market where the habit of adding a leg without checking the price costs the most.
Shared price lists are worth knowing about. Where several brands publish identical numbers, spreading accounts across them buys nothing. The real choice is between that group and the houses pricing independently of it.
This is the first instalment. Each round will get the same treatment.
Every bookmaker in this analysis
- Linebet3.55%
- Megapari3.55%
- Melbet3.55%
- Paripesa3.55%
- 1xBet4.10%
- 1win5.91%
- Betmomo6.12%
- Akwabet7.08%
- Betclic8.14%
The fixtures, priced live
- Arsenal v Coventry21 August
- Hull City v Manchester United22 August
- Ipswich v Sunderland22 August
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds22 August
- Everton v Crystal Palace22 August
- Brentford v Tottenham22 August
- Manchester City v Bournemouth23 August
- Brighton v Aston Villa23 August
- Newcastle v Liverpool23 August
- Fulham v Chelsea24 August
Elsewhere on BetCheck
- Every Ivorian bookmaker, compared
- Match previews, published daily
- Accas of the day
- More smart betting guides
Method
Odds from the Ivorian bookmakers listed above on the Premier League fixtures of 21 to 24 August 2026, as at 18 August. Margin is the sum of the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market, less 100%. The best available price takes the highest number quoted on each outcome anywhere in the Ivorian market. Percentages beside a fixture are the market's own view of it once margin is stripped out. Odds move; the numbers here describe a snapshot, not a guarantee. 18+. Bet responsibly.
